Shellabears Blog
November Housing Market Wrap | Perth Leads Growth
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Welcome to my November local property wrap, summer is with us and the carpark at Claremont quarter is full as a boot with Christmas shoppers taking some of the focus away from property.
Typically, from mid-December to Mid Jan the Western suburbs are either travelling or focused on family and Christmas – as it should be. Most of my appraisals are now looking at January launches, with lots of sellers and buyers lining up.
Across the nation the supply Vs demand conversation continues to dominate the market. This is explained well, tongue in cheek, by national finance commentator Chris Kohler here Chis Kohler housing supply video
National home values rose 1.0% in November, marking the third consecutive month of strong growth, though the pace is easing from October’s 1.1% gain. Mid-sized capitals are outperforming, with Perth leading at 2.4% growth, while Sydney and Melbourne lag at 0.5% and 0.3% amid affordability constraints. A lower monthly gain in Sydney, at 0.5%, could be reflective of affordability constraints putting a ceiling on growth which is creeping into the market.
- A median (or typical) income household, which represents those earning about $118,000 a year nationally, could afford just 15% of all homes sold across the country. This is only marginally higher than the low seen in 2008-09. This share represents a sizeable change from as recently as four years ago, when mortgage rates were at record lows in 2020-21. At that time, a median-income household could afford 43% of homes sold, the highest share since 2001/02.
- For higher-income households, affordability has improved marginally. Home prices at the more expensive end of the market have not increased by as much as more-affordable homes. Lower mortgage rates and higher incomes mean, for higher-income households, borrowing capacity has increased by more than home prices in market segments relevant for them. Yet the same is not true for middle- and lower-income households. Low-income households are effectively locked out, as a household at the 30th income percentile could afford to buy just 3% of homes.
- The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has unveiled a new cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) lending – a move designed to keep a lid on riskier borrowing as the housing market gathers price momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Most lenders are already well below that level, so borrowing power and credit availability remain essentially unchanged.
- Australian dwelling prices are forecast to rise 6% to 10% in 2026, according to SQM Research’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2026. “Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide [are] poised for double-digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum.”
