Shellabears Blog
Perth Property Market Forecast 2026: Lending Trends, CGT Changes & Buyer Demand
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Uncertainty is the biggest challenge now. By that I mean there are so many mixed messages in the economy, the property market and the global geopolitical space and so many of these variables are outside of our control, that some people are hitting the pause button. I suspect this will be temporary until there is more clarity and then underlying fundamentals of demand outstripping supply will continue to shape our market.
- The federal government has cut fuel excise tax by 26.3 cents per litre for the next three months to help ease cost-of-living pressures.
- Australia’s housing loan market is facing headwinds, particularly in the investor segment, amid speculation around changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount for investors and a cap on negative gearing.
- Despite that, according to Money.com.au‘s latest State-by-State Mortgage Insights Report, home lending growth is forecast to hit 7% in 2026 (to 594,279 loans), with the investor segment set to grow at nearly twice that rate (13%) to 246,598 loans, based on current growth rates.
This includes a 2% drop in owner-occupier lending and a 0.3% dip in investor loans, or roughly 1,000 fewer loans than in 2025. The slowdown follows a strong five-year run, during which investor lending more than tripled, rising from 7,433 to 25,963 as buyers capitalised on the state’s booming property market. Grab a coffee and talk through the data, I’m always happy to share what I’m seeing on the ground.
The report also highlights projections based on current growth trends that show Western Australia is expected to be the only state to see home lending decline in 2026, with total loan volumes forecast to fall by around 1%.
For a detailed property report covering 6010 from National research office SQM Research CLICK HERE
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